Unwarranted Optimism

    For there is always light,

    If only we’re brave enough to see it.

    If only we’re brave enough to be it.

    (Amanda Gorman)

    When everything around appears dark and it is hard to see the light, we need to be brave enough to have unwarranted optimism. It is unwarranted because of the number of challenges faced by colleagues working in education that push us into hopelessness and toward helplessness. And, perhaps worse, there is a real danger that this helplessness is increasingly learnt, mutually reinforced and influencing the stories we tell each other about our profession.

    “Do you have the resilience to show unwarranted optimism, and to regard crisis as the norm and complexity as fun, while maintaining a bottomless well of intellectual curiosity?” (Tim Brighouse)

    To work in our profession requires unwarranted optimism. It always has, but it feels harder than ever to view the future with hope. Optimism (particularly unwarranted) is the life blood of our sector, the fuel that drives good people to do good and change lives. We must not sink our profession by peddling pessimism, even if it is warranted.

    “The problem is that people mistake optimism for ‘blind optimism’.” (Hannah Ritchie)

    However, this is no time for ‘blind optimism’, a naive faith or passive hope that things will turn out well. We need a ‘conditional’, ‘urgent’ optimism that empowers us to act, to step forward and build together a future for all children. Even if optimism, at this time, is unwarranted, it is a far better basis for offering colleagues and children a sense of possibility.


    Warranted Optimism | Everyday acts of heroism.

    “Optimism is seeing challenges as opportunities to make progress; it’s having the confidence that there are things we can do to make a difference. We can shape the future, and we can build a great one if we want to.” (Hannah Ritchie)

    Our schools may well be performing better than ever, providing provision that is meeting the steepest of challenges, post pandemic, and in the face of the fracturing social contract. In all schools, heroic acts are changing lives, exemplifying the power of human connection, offering real hope and optimism for the future; a powerful force for good.

    Warranted Pessimism | poor choice for children and colleagues.

    Warranted pessimism is not an option. Despite the oppressive background music and the darkening light, if we choose to be pessimistic, we may well extinguish the fading light. Too much pessimism, warranted or unwarranted disturbs us deeply, encourages retreat and pushes us to become victims of circumstance. And whilst we can individually decide to retreat, it comes at a cost for all and our profession, as well as the children who need optimism, not pessimism, from the adults they trust.

    “There is no trust more sacred than the one the world holds with children.” (Kofi Annan)

    Skin in the game | our influence lives beyond us

    We all have an opportunity to be and bring the light to others. We cannot choose to sit outside the lives of others or be silent in the narratives that we tell each other; we have skin in other people’s lives. How we choose to move through life, reinforces or erodes the narrative and norms that set the stage far beyond ourselves, in schools, classrooms, and more broadly in life.  How we choose to live in this world, matters.

    How to live in a world where profound uncertainty is not a bug, but a feature? (Yuval Noah Harari)

    We are also hugely influenced by the need to fit in. It is coded deep in us that to be outside of a group hurts, is unsafe and a danger. So, we often take opportunities to align ourselves with the beliefs, attitudes, norms and behaviours of those closest to us. Often choosing against our independent beliefs to follow trend and fit in; a trend that is too often pessimistic. It matters, therefore, whether we choose unwarranted optimism or not, it radiates and infects beyond ourselves to other beings and happenings, all of the time.

    “Your response has to be to reject cynicism and reject pessimism and push forward, with a certain infectious and relentless optimism. Not blind optimism, not one that ignores the scale and scope of our challenges, but that hard-earned optimism, that’s rooted in the stories of very real progress.” (Barack Obama)

    Fairy Lights over Spotlights | a marvellous victory

    “What we choose to emphasise … will determine our lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity to do something… and at least the possibility of sending this spinning top of a world in a different direction. …to live now as we think human beings should live, in defiance of all that is bad around us, is itself a marvellous victory.” (Howard Zinn)

    To live with unwarranted optimism is to seek the joy of fairy lights over spotlights. A focus on fairy lights enables us to see the joy woven through life, to value the happenings and humans around us. Shifting our focus to the normal, everyday, magic that happens in schools, reveals the power of human relationships and places value on what really matters.

    “To be hopeful in bad times is not just foolishly romantic.” (Howard Zinn)

    The future then is built on an accumulation of small acts, a bottom-up movement, where change becomes possible and we have the chance to send this spinning top of a world in a different direction.

    meaningful movements start bottom-up.

    Seeking spotlights on the other hand is like waiting for big things or changes, often viewing them as a salvation that will save the day. It is the hope that kills, the waiting for the next station that stops us from living now and enjoying the journey.

    “I’ve very deliberately chosen to notice the smaller things, the joys I might have otherwise missed had I looked too broad, too big. The thousands of joys that lattice and join and thread into and around our daily school life.” (Claire Stoneman)

    Uncommon Opportunity | striving for what is worth having.

    There might just be an uncommon opportunity to re-evaluate what really matters in education. Some of the most courageous and heroic work is happening in unfavoured areas of our sector; areas where the challenge is steepest and recognition the lowest.

    “This is Vanity Fair a world where everyone is striving for what is not worth having.” (William Thackeray)

    The narrowness of what is valued in education belies the vibrance and range of opportunity that exists in our world and the eclectic abilities of human beings. It is this narrowness that disenfranchises the many. We must throw more light on what is worth having, what children need for their future; a system more geared towards those it serves.

    I deal my own deck, sometimes the ace, sometimes the deuces.” (Gloria Gaynor)

    When we are pushed by powers beyond our control we should strive to go in the opposite direction and enable others to take more control, to step forward and make a difference to their part of the world. We should continue to deal our own cards, and empower others, to deal from their decks, optimistically, regardless of what is dealt; because we have collective power and we are the system.

    Too many feel unremarkable | in a remarkable world.

    In a darkening world children, particularly under-resourced children, need us to have unwarranted optimism, to offer more light and a greater sense of possibility. Creating the conditions for children to adventure down rabbit holes of curiosity and to feel the wonder of our remarkable world. We seek this wonder, so that children have the chance to walk a step or two with genius and because childhoods last a lifetime.

    “Do you believe with a passion that brooks no denial that all pupils, whatever their background, can walk a step or two with genius and that your staff will embrace the aim that all students will grow up to think for themselves and act for others?” (Tim Brighouse)

    We must not allow a pervading pessimism to extinguish the light for children and create a self-fulfilling narrative that damages our profession. We must encourage more to serve in education to reveal the magic that exist in ordinary lives and to bring more light.

    “…treading the intriguing line between the everyday and the otherworldly, revealing the magic that exists in our ordinary lives.” (The Lost Bookshop)

    Not our story to finish | true but useless.

    We should not pretend to know the future or how this story plays out. We must tread carefully on the dreams of children and seek to create provision that is more born out of optimism than pessimism. It is the difference between setting the stage for children to stumble forward in the dark, steeped in pessimism, and stepping with confidence into a future that is full of optimism and possibility. Children need to grow up in a world where they feel remarkable, opportunity is unbound, and where children do not feel separate from the world.

    “…although her childhood, had left her feeling separate from the world.” (Steven Rogers)

    Lest we forget that children are vulnerable to the beliefs and narratives of the adults in their lives. The challenges we face are true but useless for the children we educate. They do not choose the conditions, location, or time that they inhabit, and they are largely unaware of pressures, turmoil, and upset of colleagues in our sector. They profit nothing from a sector that fights, argues, gives-up, or fails to work optimistically with the hand that they are dealt.


    Unwarranted optimism | An invitation to dance

    We choose our approach to life and to work. It is too easy to see the challenges that surround us and retreat into the security of pessimism, into narratives that reduce agency and reinforce helplessness. But, when we do, it is not an individual choice, the impact of this stance reverberates through other beings and happenings. It denies a sense of possibility.

    Conversely, to bravely choose optimism, conditional optimism, we offer a greater sense of possibility, to reassess what is valued and to see the magic and the light in the everyday. This is a stronger basis for the future, more generous and a greater investment in colleagues and children.

    “Ignore those who say that we are doomed. We are not doomed. We can build a better future for everyone.” (Hannah Ritchie)

    So, to choose individually, collectively, and organisationally to pursue unwarranted optimism is to contribute to a growing narrative that encourages us not just to see the light, but to be the light. To step forward rather than shy away from the future and collectively build it.

    And in this optimistic light perhaps all children and colleagues will accept an invitation to dance.


    Dan Nicholls | February 2024

    Collaborative Advantage | seeking a trust dividend

    Strong Trusts seek collaborative advantage by building an organisational structure and curating a culture that connects colleagues in shared endeavour. In these Trusts colleagues are empowered, on standardised platforms, to take collective responsibility for approaches and artefacts that enable connected schools to add value and secure a Trust dividend that sustains beyond their time. Trusts seek school improvement by making deliberate bets, laid as investments, that improve the life chances of all children, particularly those who are under-resourced. And in these dark times, it has never been more important for Trusts to seek greater equity through education, to be long-sighted and to invest in the future by planting trees, deeply rooted in their communities; the shade from which they may never benefit.

    “…leaders doing less but understanding more… can free themselves to focus on the future – which is, after all, the proper territory of leadership.” (Tracey Camilleri, et al.)

    Where Trusts choose to play and how they focus on the future, matters

    Defined by the decisions we make | Choosing where to play

    Whilst we might assume that there are many ways to run a Trust, there are surprisingly few. And it is ‘few’ because all Trusts are in the business of school improvement, held in a highly regulated system and seeking to improve the life chances of all children. There is a reassuring alignment between the challenges and opportunities that Trusts engage with to add value, moderated, a little, by maturity, scale and capacity. Where Trusts choose to play and how well this is enacted largely determines the success of a Trust.

    As Trusts grow, merge, mature and forge identities, their effectiveness could be simplified as the sum of all decisions made, by all colleagues, every second, of everyday, everywhere in a Trust that accumulates a dividend, or not. The role of Trust leaders is to influence, nudge, (direct), enable better decisions to be made more often, over time, the sum of which delivers the dividend. How Trusts influence this decision making, is a dance between what it decides to do together and where it decides to empower colleagues to act. An intelligent dance, that balances standardised and empowered approaches, and connects colleagues together seeking a collaborative advantage.

    Seeking collaborative advantage | Who’s on first base?

    Trust (and school) leaders “…are all playing Moneyball, all the time” (Seth Godin). Seeking the organisational design and strategy that will make a discernible difference and hold schools in a higher and more consistent performance space. For Bill James and the Oakland As it was: “…putting players on base at a higher rate, leads to more runs, which therefore, translates to more wins.” For Trusts, perhaps it is:

    “…putting colleagues together (with purpose) at a higher rate, leads to more value, which therefore, translates to a greater dividend.”

    Creating the architecture for colleagues to deliberately collaborate creates the conditions for a collaborative advantage. Connecting colleagues within professional networks and subject communities, empowers peers to co-construct and co-design beliefs, attitudes, approaches and artefacts that drive the dividend, for the long term. Strong Trusts understand the need to build antifragile organisations where the hard-wired (and soft wired) collaborative architecture strengthens under stress, secures wide ownership for improvement, is self-improving and irreversible. Effective collaboration is hard to create, what it is and what it isn’t and how it is designed, entirely determines the benefit felt. The biggest influence on teachers is teachers.

    “System leaders focus on creating the conditions that can produce change and that can eventually cause change to be self-sustaining.” (Senge et al.)

    The cultural landscape and fabric of the Trust

    It is hard to under-state the importance of culture in organisations. The deliberate design of the cultural landscape and the strength of the cultural fabric are necessary pre-requisites for the sustained success of any organisation; built ever onward.

    Colleagues need a contradictory mix of being part of something bigger (the cultural landscape), and to see themselves in the organisation (part of the cultural fabric), to have what they need and to be a unique part of the pattern.

    The cultural landscape of a Trust is shaped and carved over time towards the shared purpose, the mission of the Trust and is guided by deeply held (lived) values and enacted in shared rituals and routines. Walking and working in the cultural landscape reveal the values and character of the Trust; it determines and secures belonging, status, and esteem of colleagues, or not. How Trusts choose to spend time and how colleagues connect is a window into the soul of the organisation.

    “The stars we are given. The constellations we make.” (Rebecca Solnit)

    The strongest cultural landscapes are organised around the reason for existence. These Trusts clearly articulate the mission and the purpose of the Trust, which is held across the landscape by the North Star, guiding and moulding the norms and behaviours. Lit by this star the cultural fabric weaves colleagues together towards the mission, to do good and make a difference.

     “If everything is important, then nothing is… When you know your reason for existence, it should affect the decisions you make.” (Lencioni)

    The strongest cultural fabrics are held together by a shared language, vocabulary, norms, behaviours, attitudes, artefacts, standards, conversations, ideas… it holds colleagues, offering the psychological safety to bring their best selves. The fabric is deliberately, consciously and systematically woven in every action and conversation. It is the cultural landscape and fabric of a Trust, that sets the stage and the conditions for colleagues to do important work.

    When we build a culture of people who eagerly seek out and take responsibility, we build a culture that enables a special kind of resilient freedom.” (Seth Godin)

    In strong Trusts, culture is deeply linked to where it has been (true to founding) and where it is going (ambition for all) and its journey (the everyday culture). It is (un)surprisingly well designed and felt everywhere, from all colleagues; how we treat anyone, is how we treat everyone. One of those things that takes years to build and seconds to destroy. The culture and colleagues drive the dividend.

    Trust Mindedness | school is trust, trust is school. Priming the landscape.

    Strong Trusts seed and cultivate the landscape, to reward Trust mindedness, intrinsically so. A priming of culture that is conducive to collaboration, to understanding that all leaders, all colleagues are responsible for all children in the Trust. It is about creating an internal market where the stock price of schools, leaders and colleagues rises with altruism, collaboration, professional generosity, contributing to the shared artefacts, routines and rituals that live out the Trust values, towards the mission and secures the dividend.

    This is a Trust-wide mindset, within the cultural landscape and fabric that primes, promotes and rewards relationships and behaviours that fuel and sustain the School Improvement Model. It is the deep collaborative motivation that lives in the Trust, to depth, that encourages better decisions more often, so that the Trust is more than the sum of the parts. Under these conditions Trust leadership is increasingly about guardianship and stewardship.

    The primacy of Principals | The lead actors in mature (and immature Trusts)

    Strong Trusts recognise the primacy of Principals. Schools are significantly influenced by the quality of the headteacher (and teams they lead). If the culture and choices made by a Trust largely determines the potency and effectiveness, then the Headteachers are the key actors in school improvement. The effectiveness of the Headteacher is largely the determining factor in the quality of provision, influenced by the Trust, of course, but perhaps not as much as we would like to think.

    The strongest Principals are great with people, understand provision and lead with purpose, prioritising and implementing key strategies and approaches, over time to drive the effectiveness (and efficiency) of the school. Importantly they are open and able to utilise the resource and strength of the Trust; a symbiosis that adds value, and increasingly so. Strong Trusts invest deeply in Headteachers, designing curriculum, professional learning, opportunities, connectivity, collaboration and the conditions for Heads to lead well.

    Exploit the complicated | Standardised Provision

    Perhaps the biggest advantage afforded to Trusts is the ability to standardise aspects of provision to secure school improvement and greater consistency in provision. Despite some negative connotations or overly simplistic views of “standardisation,” it has tremendous power to liberate, support and give permission (and opportunity) for colleagues to focus on the Main Thing(s). The creation of standardised approaches, strategies and artefacts builds a platform for colleagues, to focus on meeting need, without the distraction of re-designing areas of provision that just need to happen reliably and consistently.

    Leadership is the art of giving people a platform for spreading ideas that work.” (Seth Godin)

    Strong Trusts intentionally and deliberately standardise ‘complicated’ areas of provision:  Complicated areas act largely the same way each time. These areas can often helpfully be reduced to a checklist; if this, then do that. Trusts should play in these areas and standardise as there is limited need for local decision making or creativity and, importantly, this offers the opportunity for a Trust to improve provision for all learners (and colleagues). Co-creating and co-designing shared curriculum and assessment are particularly potent areas for the dividend.  

    Empower and guide the complex | Empowered Provision

    Areas that are largely complex should be empowered to schools and colleagues. Complex areas respond differently each time and are typically influenced by the unpredictability of human action and interaction, requiring in the moment decision making. In complex areas of provision, we need to push decisions closer to the action where quality and outcomes are linked to the situation as it emerges, contextually influenced. 

    There are areas of provision in each academy that is better owned and empowered locally, they are largely complex, influenced by context and improved by local decision making. Of course, it is desirable to standardise aspects of these largely complex areas in academies to (fractally) create the standardised platform for colleagues in academies.

    Don’t overcook | Just because you could, does not mean you should.

    Standardise too far, and you remove the local decision making, professionalism and agency of colleagues to make good decisions, commensurate and appropriate to a profession, and being a professional.  This is the crux of effective Trust leadership, the dance between the complicated and complex, to standardise and to empower deliberately and purposefully. Held in tension, strong Trusts create routines, standardise areas of provision to support colleagues, but do not seek to over dictate the complex areas of provision where local decision making, near to the action, informed in the moment, adds the value and creates the sustainable behaviours that secures a self-improving organisation, beyond our time.

    Holding ideas in tension is not a compromise

    Trusts should not use their power to standardise without bound, there are limits to the effectiveness of standardisation when it steps over and on individual agency and professionalism.

    “…under the conditions of true complexity – where unpredictability reigns – efforts to dictate every step from the centre will fail. People … require a seemingly contradictory mix of freedom and expectation.” (Atul Gawande)

    Measure what matters, transparently and in the interest of school improvement

    Strong Trusts measure what matters and by doing so indicate what they care about. This is the transparent democratisation of data to all colleagues to enable a focus on learning and evaluation of provision, to depth. This reveals standards, informs school improvement and highlights high (and low) performance as well as expertise across the Trust.

    Trust leaders are guardians of standards, creating an insurance policy that holds and secures improvement for all children and schools in the Trust. A risk-led approach enables an agile and timely distortion of resource, school improvement capacity and expertise to ensure that all children, areas of provision and academies are supported to improve and level-up in a timescale that is quicker than the local resource capability. School is Trust, Trust is school; all colleagues responsible for all children.


    Whether Trusts become more than the sum of their parts and add a dividend for all children, families and communities is determined by the choices that they make and where they choose to play. Strong Trusts craft cultural landscapes and empower colleagues within a cultural fabric, on a standardised platform, to connect across the Trust to realise a collaborative advantage.

    “The role of the leader is to enable, facilitate, and cause peers to interact in a focused manner…but still only a minority of systems employ the power of collective capacity.” (Fullan)

    Strong Trusts build the conditions where the collective capacity is focused on addressing the steep challenges of our time and where the collaborative advantage drives a dividend that secures greater equity through education.

    …But, Trusts are not alone in the landscape, despite pressures that promote isolationism and competition, all parts of the sector are joined in a quest to build a better system. A system that will only meet the growing needs of all children when there is greater collaboration, stewardship, generosity and collective responsibility. We should seek together a sector that exploits a collective collaborative advantage for the good of all children.

    All Trusts working together for all children


    Dan Nicholls | February 2024

    The thinking presented here is based on the work, experience and thinking of colleagues across Cabot Learning Federation.